VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Werder Bremen
Postmatch editorial
Werder Bremen found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Werder Bremen. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Justin Njinmah put the first mark on the match 68', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: VfL Wolfsburg led Corners 8-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. VfL Wolfsburg also shaded Shots on target 4-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Werder Bremen the likeliest result at 44.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfL Wolfsburg at 42.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.1%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Werder Bremen
44.3%
Market result
VfL Wolfsburg
42.0%
BTTS
Yes
59.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
8
4
Shots on target
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
4
3
Total shots
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
11
8
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.