Postmatch editorial
SC Freiburg found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was VfL Wolfsburg 3-4 SC Freiburg. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Derry Scherhant scored 78' for SC Freiburg.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: SC Freiburg led Corners 2-6. SC Freiburg also shaded Shots on target 6-8.
Before kickoff, our model made SC Freiburg the likeliest result at 40.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfL Wolfsburg at 41.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.4%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
SC Freiburg
40.7%
Market result
VfL Wolfsburg
41.3%
BTTS
Yes
54.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg
SC Freiburg
2
6
Shots on target
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg
SC Freiburg
6
8
Possession
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
SC Freiburg
56%
44%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.