Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was VfL Wolfsburg 1-1 Heidenheim. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Moritz Jenz 80', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: VfL Wolfsburg led Possession 70%-30%, even though the scoreboard went another way. VfL Wolfsburg also shaded Shots on target 4-3.
Before kickoff, our model made VfL Wolfsburg the likeliest result at 47.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfL Wolfsburg at 59.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.76 against a fair line of 1.71. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfL Wolfsburg
47.4%
Market result
VfL Wolfsburg
59.0%
BTTS
Yes
60.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Heidenheim
70%
30%
Shots on target
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Heidenheim
4
3
Corners
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Heidenheim
9
6
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.76
Fair odd
1.71
Edge
2.9%
Stake
1.04u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.