VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Hamburger SV
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Hamburger SV
The final score was VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hamburger SV. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
VfL Wolfsburg struck first through Christian Eriksen 22', but Hamburger SV recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Hamburger SV led Shots on target 4-7. VfL Wolfsburg also shaded Corners 7-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Hamburger SV the likeliest result at 42.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfL Wolfsburg at 39.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Hamburger SV
42.1%
Market result
VfL Wolfsburg
39.1%
BTTS
Yes
54.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Hamburger SVVfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
4
7
Corners
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
7
3
Total shots
VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
14
10
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.