Postmatch editorial

The script held and FC Bayern München delivered it

The final score was VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 FC Bayern München. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Michael Olise put the first mark on the match 56', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Bayern München led Shots on target 5-9. FC Bayern München also shaded Possession 31%-69%.

Before kickoff, our model made FC Bayern München the likeliest result at 70.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Bayern München at 67.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.65 against a fair line of 1.61. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

FC Bayern München

70.6%

Hit

Market result

FC Bayern München

67.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

51.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FC Bayern München

VfL Wolfsburg

FC Bayern München

5

9

Possession

FC Bayern München

VfL Wolfsburg

FC Bayern München

31%

69%

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg

FC Bayern München

6

3

Model edge

2

Interwetten

Market odd

1.65

Fair odd

1.61

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.13u

That ticket matched the final outcome.