VfL Wolfsburg
FC Augsburg won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
FC Augsburg
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
VfL Wolfsburg struck first through Yannick Gerhardt 41', but FC Augsburg recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FC Augsburg led Corners 4-10. FC Augsburg also shaded Shots on target 4-6.
Before kickoff, our model made VfL Wolfsburg the likeliest result at 42.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfL Wolfsburg at 45.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfL Wolfsburg
42.5%
Market result
VfL Wolfsburg
45.2%
BTTS
Yes
57.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
FC AugsburgVfL Wolfsburg
FC Augsburg
4
10
Shots on target
FC AugsburgVfL Wolfsburg
FC Augsburg
4
6
Total shots
FC AugsburgVfL Wolfsburg
FC Augsburg
10
15
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.