VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
SC Freiburg
Postmatch editorial
VfB Stuttgart turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Ermedin Demirovic scored 89' for VfB Stuttgart.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: VfB Stuttgart led Shots on target 7-2. VfB Stuttgart also shaded Possession 69%-31%.
Before kickoff, our model made VfB Stuttgart the likeliest result at 54.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfB Stuttgart at 60.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfB Stuttgart
54.6%
Market result
VfB Stuttgart
60.6%
BTTS
Yes
57.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
SC Freiburg
7
2
Possession
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
SC Freiburg
69%
31%
Corners
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
SC Freiburg
6
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.