VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
RB Leipzig
Postmatch editorial
VfB Stuttgart made the numbers look right
The final score was VfB Stuttgart 1-0 RB Leipzig. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Deniz Undav put the first mark on the match 56', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: VfB Stuttgart led Total shots 13-9. VfB Stuttgart also shaded Possession 57%-43%.
Before kickoff, our model made VfB Stuttgart the likeliest result at 47.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfB Stuttgart at 40.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfB Stuttgart
47.1%
Market result
VfB Stuttgart
40.8%
BTTS
Yes
62.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
13
9
Possession
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
57%
43%
Corners
RB LeipzigVfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig
5
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.