VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart won after full-time.
4 - 0
FT
Hamburger SV
Postmatch editorial
VfB Stuttgart turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was VfB Stuttgart 4-0 Hamburger SV. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Bilal El Khannouss scored 86' for VfB Stuttgart.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: VfB Stuttgart led Shots on target 11-5. VfB Stuttgart also shaded Total shots 23-9.
Before kickoff, our model made VfB Stuttgart the likeliest result at 51.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfB Stuttgart at 77.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfB Stuttgart
51.6%
Market result
VfB Stuttgart
77.5%
BTTS
Yes
60.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
11
5
Total shots
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
23
9
Corners
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
8
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.