Postmatch editorial
The script held and VfB Stuttgart delivered it
The final score was VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Eintracht Frankfurt struck first through Rasmus Kristensen 5', but VfB Stuttgart recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: VfB Stuttgart led Shots on target 11-5. VfB Stuttgart also shaded Corners 10-2.
Before kickoff, our model made VfB Stuttgart the likeliest result at 49.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfB Stuttgart at 59.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 1.83 against a fair line of 1.78. That translated to an edge of 2.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfB Stuttgart
49.8%
Market result
VfB Stuttgart
59.9%
BTTS
Yes
60.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Eintracht Frankfurt
11
5
Corners
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Eintracht Frankfurt
10
2
Total shots
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Eintracht Frankfurt
20
12
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
1.83
Fair odd
1.78
Edge
2.8%
Stake
1.03u
That ticket matched the final outcome.