VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Borussia Dortmund
Postmatch editorial
Borussia Dortmund flipped the prices on their head
The final score was VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Julian Brandt scored 90+6' for Borussia Dortmund.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: VfB Stuttgart led Total shots 13-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. VfB Stuttgart also shaded Possession 67%-33%.
Before kickoff, our model made VfB Stuttgart the likeliest result at 44.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfB Stuttgart at 43.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (63.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfB Stuttgart
44.9%
Market result
VfB Stuttgart
43.3%
BTTS
Yes
63.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
13
5
Possession
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
67%
33%
Corners
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
5
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.