VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Postmatch editorial
VfB Stuttgart made the numbers look right
The final score was VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen struck first through Aleix García 1', but VfB Stuttgart recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: VfB Stuttgart led Total shots 20-6. VfB Stuttgart also shaded Shots on target 9-5.
Before kickoff, our model made VfB Stuttgart the likeliest result at 40.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced VfB Stuttgart at 49.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.5%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
VfB Stuttgart
40.5%
Market result
VfB Stuttgart
49.8%
BTTS
Yes
61.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
20
6
Shots on target
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
9
5
Corners
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
7
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.