Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Colombia

The final score was Venezuela 3-6 Colombia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Venezuela struck first through Telasco Segovia 3', but Colombia recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Colombia led Possession 36%-64%. Venezuela also shaded Corners 3-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Venezuela the likeliest result at 35.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Colombia at 36.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 3.15 against a fair line of 2.97. That translated to an edge of 6.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Venezuela

35.7%

Miss

Market result

Colombia

36.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

57.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Colombia

Venezuela

Colombia

36%

64%

Corners

Venezuela

Venezuela

Colombia

3

2

Total shots

Colombia

Venezuela

Colombia

11

13

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

3.15

Fair odd

2.97

Edge

6.1%

Stake

0.59u

That ticket matched the final outcome.