Postmatch editorial

The script held and Juventus delivered it

The final score was Venezia 2-3 Juventus. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Venezia struck first through Daniel Fila 2', but Juventus recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Juventus led Possession 43%-57%. Juventus also shaded Total shots 12-15.

Before kickoff, our model made Juventus the likeliest result at 57.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Juventus at 69.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 888sport. The market was offering 1.60 against a fair line of 1.56. That translated to an edge of 2.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Juventus

57.4%

Hit

Market result

Juventus

69.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Juventus

Venezia

Juventus

43%

57%

Total shots

Juventus

Venezia

Juventus

12

15

Shots on target

Venezia

Juventus

5

5

Model edge

2

888sport

Market odd

1.60

Fair odd

1.56

Edge

2.6%

Stake

1.24u

That ticket matched the final outcome.