Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Venezia

The final score was Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Fali Candé put the first mark on the match 60', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Fiorentina led Corners 1-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Fiorentina also shaded Total shots 9-16.

Before kickoff, our model made Fiorentina the likeliest result at 47.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Venezia at 36.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Tipico. The market was offering 3.10 against a fair line of 2.93. That translated to an edge of 5.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Fiorentina

47.8%

Miss

Market result

Venezia

36.9%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

50.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Fiorentina

Venezia

Fiorentina

1

5

Total shots

Fiorentina

Venezia

Fiorentina

9

16

Possession

Fiorentina

Venezia

Fiorentina

34%

66%

Model edge

1

Tipico

Market odd

3.10

Fair odd

2.93

Edge

5.8%

Stake

0.60u

That ticket matched the final outcome.