Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Vasco da Gama 0-1 Atlético Mineiro. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Vitor Hugo  put the first mark on the match 32', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Vasco da Gama led Total shots 26-10, even though the scoreboard went another way. Vasco da Gama also shaded Shots on target 8-4.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Vasco da Gama the favourite at 51.8% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Vasco da Gama

51.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama

Atlético Mineiro

26

10

Shots on target

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama

Atlético Mineiro

8

4

Possession

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama

Atlético Mineiro

60%

40%