Vanuatu
Vanuatu won after full-time.
4 - 1
FT
Samoa
Postmatch editorial
Vanuatu flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Vanuatu 4-1 Samoa. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Bong Kalo scored 90+1' for Vanuatu.
Before kickoff, our model made Samoa the likeliest result at 45.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced No clear call at n/a implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Samoa
45.1%
BTTS
Yes
51.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
No reliable match statistics were returned for this game.
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.