Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Valencia 1-1 Mallorca. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Samú Costa put the first mark on the match 23', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Valencia led Total shots 17-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Valencia also shaded Possession 71%-29%.
Before kickoff, our model made Valencia the likeliest result at 50.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Valencia at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Valencia
50.4%
Market result
Valencia
48.8%
BTTS
No
51.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
ValenciaValencia
Mallorca
17
4
Possession
ValenciaValencia
Mallorca
71%
29%
Corners
ValenciaValencia
Mallorca
12
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.