Postmatch editorial

Valencia flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Valencia 3-1 FC Barcelona. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

FC Barcelona struck first through Robert Lewandowski 61', but Valencia recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Barcelona led Possession 24%-76%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Valencia also shaded Total shots 19-11.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made FC Barcelona the favourite at 51.3% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

FC Barcelona

51.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

FC Barcelona

Valencia

FC Barcelona

24%

76%

Total shots

Valencia

Valencia

FC Barcelona

19

11

Shots on target

Valencia

Valencia

FC Barcelona

6

4