Valencia
Valencia won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
FC Barcelona
Postmatch editorial
Valencia flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Valencia 3-1 FC Barcelona. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
FC Barcelona struck first through Robert Lewandowski 61', but Valencia recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Barcelona led Possession 24%-76%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Valencia also shaded Total shots 19-11.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Barcelona the likeliest result at 60.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Barcelona at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Barcelona
60.8%
Market result
FC Barcelona
51.3%
BTTS
Yes
56.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
FC BarcelonaValencia
FC Barcelona
24%
76%
Total shots
ValenciaValencia
FC Barcelona
19
11
Shots on target
ValenciaValencia
FC Barcelona
6
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.