Postmatch editorial

Valencia turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Valencia 3-2 Deportivo Alavés. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Deportivo Alavés struck first through Lucas Boyé 3', but Valencia recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Valencia led Shots on target 8-4. Valencia also shaded Corners 10-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Valencia the likeliest result at 44.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Valencia at 47.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.7%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Valencia

44.2%

Hit

Market result

Valencia

47.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Valencia

Valencia

Deportivo Alavés

8

4

Corners

Valencia

Valencia

Deportivo Alavés

10

2

Total shots

Valencia

Valencia

Deportivo Alavés

19

10

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.