Valencia
Celta de Vigo won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Celta de Vigo
Postmatch editorial
Celta de Vigo settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Valencia 2-3 Celta de Vigo. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Valencia struck first through Guido RodrÃguez 12', but Celta de Vigo recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Valencia led Corners 6-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Valencia also shaded Total shots 13-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Celta de Vigo the likeliest result at 37.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Valencia at 42.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.5%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Celta de Vigo
37.4%
Market result
Valencia
42.6%
BTTS
Yes
50.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
ValenciaValencia
Celta de Vigo
6
0
Total shots
ValenciaValencia
Celta de Vigo
13
9
Possession
Celta de VigoValencia
Celta de Vigo
42%
58%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.