Valencia
Atlético Madrid won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Atlético de Madrid
Postmatch editorial
Atlético de Madrid found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Valencia 0-2 Atlético de Madrid. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Miguel Cubo scored 82' for Atlético de Madrid.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Atlético de Madrid led Shots on target 0-5. Atlético de Madrid also shaded Corners 1-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Atlético de Madrid the likeliest result at 38.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Valencia at 58.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.95 against a fair line of 1.89. That translated to an edge of 3.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Atlético de Madrid
38.1%
Market result
Valencia
58.5%
BTTS
Yes
57.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Atlético de MadridValencia
Atlético de Madrid
0
5
Corners
Atlético de MadridValencia
Atlético de Madrid
1
7
Total shots
Atlético de MadridValencia
Atlético de Madrid
12
20
Model edge
1
Interwetten
Market odd
1.95
Fair odd
1.89
Edge
3.2%
Stake
0.92u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.