Postmatch editorial
El Salvador made the numbers look right
The final score was US Virgin Islands 0-7 El Salvador. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Tony Rugamas scored 90' for El Salvador.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: El Salvador led Shots on target 1-12. El Salvador also shaded Corners 1-11.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 43.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (63.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
43.1%
Market result
El Salvador
99.0%
BTTS
Yes
63.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
El SalvadorUS Virgin Islands
El Salvador
1
12
Corners
El SalvadorUS Virgin Islands
El Salvador
1
11
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.