Postmatch editorial

Uruguay turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Uruguay 3-0 Peru. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Federico Viñas scored 80' for Uruguay.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Uruguay led Shots on target 7-3. Uruguay also shaded Corners 6-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Uruguay the likeliest result at 67.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Uruguay at 69.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.6%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Uruguay

67.4%

Hit

Market result

Uruguay

69.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

61.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Uruguay

Uruguay

Peru

7

3

Corners

Uruguay

Uruguay

Peru

6

1

Total shots

Uruguay

Uruguay

Peru

24

11

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.