Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Argentina

The final score was Uruguay 0-1 Argentina. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Thiago Almada put the first mark on the match 68', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Argentina led Shots on target 2-4. Argentina also shaded Total shots 6-12.

Before kickoff, our model made Argentina the likeliest result at 38.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Uruguay at 38.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 2.85 against a fair line of 2.70. That translated to an edge of 5.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Argentina

38.8%

Hit

Market result

Uruguay

38.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Argentina

Uruguay

Argentina

2

4

Total shots

Argentina

Uruguay

Argentina

6

12

Corners

Uruguay

Uruguay

Argentina

4

3

Model edge

1

Unibet

Market odd

2.85

Fair odd

2.70

Edge

5.6%

Stake

0.65u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.