United States
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Wales
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was United States 1-1 Wales. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Gareth Bale 82', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Wales led Shots on target 1-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. United States also shaded Corners 5-3.
Before kickoff, our model made United States the likeliest result at 57.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced United States at 40.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at Sbo. The market was offering 3.70 against a fair line of 3.47. That translated to an edge of 6.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
United States
57.2%
Market result
United States
40.8%
BTTS
No
55.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
WalesUnited States
Wales
1
3
Corners
United StatesUnited States
Wales
5
3
Possession
United StatesUnited States
Wales
59%
41%
Model edge
X
Sbo
Market odd
3.70
Fair odd
3.47
Edge
6.6%
Stake
0.55u
That ticket matched the final outcome.