United States
United States won after full-time.
4 - 1
FT
Paraguay
Postmatch editorial
The script held and United States delivered it
The final score was United States 4-1 Paraguay. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Giovanni Reyna scored 90+8' for United States.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: United States led Shots on target 6-1. United States also shaded Corners 3-1.
Before kickoff, our model made United States the likeliest result at 46.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced United States at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 3.79 against a fair line of 3.55. That translated to an edge of 6.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
United States
46.4%
Market result
United States
48.8%
BTTS
Yes
53.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
United StatesUnited States
Paraguay
6
1
Corners
United StatesUnited States
Paraguay
3
1
Total shots
United StatesUnited States
Paraguay
16
9
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
3.79
Fair odd
3.55
Edge
6.8%
Stake
0.79u
That ticket matched the final outcome.