Postmatch editorial
United States turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was United States 5-1 Panama. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Christian Pulisic put the first mark on the match 17', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: United States led Shots on target 5-2. United States also shaded Total shots 15-10.
Before kickoff, our model made United States the likeliest result at 62.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced United States at 69.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Titanbet. The market was offering 1.53 against a fair line of 1.50. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
United States
62.0%
Market result
United States
69.0%
BTTS
No
55.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
United StatesUnited States
Panama
5
2
Total shots
United StatesUnited States
Panama
15
10
Possession
PanamaUnited States
Panama
40%
60%
Model edge
1
Titanbet
Market odd
1.53
Fair odd
1.50
Edge
2.0%
Stake
1.27u
That ticket matched the final outcome.