United Arab Emirates
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Iraq
Postmatch editorial
Draw settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was United Arab Emirates 1-1 Iraq. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Ali Al-Hamadi put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: United Arab Emirates led Total shots 19-10, even though the scoreboard went another way. Iraq also shaded Shots on target 4-5.
Before kickoff, our model made United Arab Emirates the likeliest result at 42.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced United Arab Emirates at 43.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at 188bet. The market was offering 3.05 against a fair line of 2.88. That translated to an edge of 5.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
United Arab Emirates
42.3%
Market result
United Arab Emirates
43.6%
BTTS
No
53.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates
Iraq
19
10
Shots on target
IraqUnited Arab Emirates
Iraq
4
5
Corners
United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates
Iraq
9
7
Model edge
X
188bet
Market odd
3.05
Fair odd
2.88
Edge
5.9%
Stake
0.61u
That ticket matched the final outcome.