Postmatch editorial

Lugo flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Unión Adarve 2-3 Lugo after extra time. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Unión Adarve struck first through Álvaro Portero 29', but Lugo recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Unión Adarve led Total shots 22-13, even though the scoreboard went another way. Unión Adarve also shaded Shots on target 9-7.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Unión Adarve the favourite at 39.1% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Unión Adarve

39.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Unión Adarve

Unión Adarve

Lugo

22

13

Shots on target

Unión Adarve

Unión Adarve

Lugo

9

7

Corners

Unión Adarve

Unión Adarve

Lugo

8

5