Postmatch editorial

Sweden found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Ukraine 1-3 Sweden. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Viktor Gyökeres put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Ukraine led Possession 68%-32%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Ukraine also shaded Corners 9-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Ukraine the likeliest result at 40.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Sweden at 43.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bwin. The market was offering 2.60 against a fair line of 2.48. That translated to an edge of 4.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ukraine

40.0%

Miss

Market result

Sweden

43.9%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

55.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Ukraine

Ukraine

Sweden

68%

32%

Corners

Ukraine

Ukraine

Sweden

9

3

Shots on target

Ukraine

Sweden

4

4

Model edge

2

Bwin

Market odd

2.60

Fair odd

2.48

Edge

4.8%

Stake

0.72u

That ticket matched the final outcome.