Postmatch editorial

Ukraine turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Ukraine 2-0 Iceland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Oleksiy Gutsulyak scored 90+3' for Ukraine.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Ukraine led Shots on target 6-2. Iceland also shaded Corners 3-10.

Before kickoff, our model made Ukraine the likeliest result at 47.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ukraine at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 4.75 against a fair line of 4.39. That translated to an edge of 8.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ukraine

47.5%

Hit

Market result

Ukraine

51.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Ukraine

Ukraine

Iceland

6

2

Corners

Iceland

Ukraine

Iceland

3

10

Total shots

Ukraine

Ukraine

Iceland

13

10

Model edge

2

Betfair

Market odd

4.75

Fair odd

4.39

Edge

8.2%

Stake

0.44u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.