Postmatch editorial

The script held and Uganda delivered it

The final score was Uganda 2-0 Somalia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Allan Okello put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Uganda led Shots on target 6-1. Uganda also shaded Corners 5-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Uganda the likeliest result at 71.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Uganda at 92.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.13 against a fair line of 1.12. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Uganda

71.8%

Hit

Market result

Uganda

92.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Uganda

Uganda

Somalia

6

1

Corners

Uganda

Uganda

Somalia

5

1

Total shots

Uganda

Uganda

Somalia

11

5

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

1.13

Fair odd

1.12

Edge

0.9%

Stake

3.12u

That ticket matched the final outcome.