Postmatch editorial

Uganda made the numbers look right

The final score was Uganda 4-0 Mozambique. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Elio Capradossi scored 90' for Uganda.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Uganda led Shots on target 4-1. Uganda also shaded Total shots 9-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Uganda the likeliest result at 45.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Uganda at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 2.05 against a fair line of 1.98. That translated to an edge of 3.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Uganda

45.7%

Hit

Market result

Uganda

52.4%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

50.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Uganda

Uganda

Mozambique

4

1

Total shots

Uganda

Uganda

Mozambique

9

1

Corners

Uganda

Uganda

Mozambique

11

0

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

2.05

Fair odd

1.98

Edge

3.5%

Stake

0.88u

That ticket matched the final outcome.