Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Uganda

The final score was Uganda 1-0 Guinea. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Allan Okello put the first mark on the match 36', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Uganda led Total shots 12-6. Uganda also shaded Shots on target 3-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Uganda the likeliest result at 39.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guinea at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 2.45 against a fair line of 2.34. That translated to an edge of 4.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Uganda

39.3%

Hit

Market result

Guinea

43.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

53.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Uganda

Uganda

Guinea

12

6

Shots on target

Uganda

Uganda

Guinea

3

2

Corners

Uganda

Uganda

Guinea

8

4

Model edge

2

Betsson

Market odd

2.45

Fair odd

2.34

Edge

4.7%

Stake

0.73u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.