Postmatch editorial
Uganda turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Uganda 1-0 Botswana. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Muhammad Shaban put the first mark on the match 74', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Uganda led Shots on target 3-0. Uganda also shaded Possession 81%-19%.
Before kickoff, our model made Uganda the likeliest result at 38.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Uganda at 52.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Nordicbet. The market was offering 2.10 against a fair line of 2.02. That translated to an edge of 4.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Uganda
38.2%
Market result
Uganda
52.6%
BTTS
No
52.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
UgandaUganda
Botswana
3
0
Possession
UgandaUganda
Botswana
81%
19%
Corners
UgandaUganda
Botswana
7
3
Model edge
1
Nordicbet
Market odd
2.10
Fair odd
2.02
Edge
4.0%
Stake
0.85u
That ticket matched the final outcome.