Postmatch editorial
Algeria turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Uganda 1-2 Algeria. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Uganda struck first through Travis Mutyaba 10', but Algeria recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Uganda led Corners 6-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Uganda also shaded Shots on target 4-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Algeria the likeliest result at 54.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Algeria at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.3%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 2.14 against a fair line of 2.06. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Algeria
54.1%
Market result
Algeria
52.4%
BTTS
No
53.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
UgandaUganda
Algeria
6
1
Shots on target
UgandaUganda
Algeria
4
3
Possession
AlgeriaUganda
Algeria
41%
59%
Model edge
2
Betfair
Market odd
2.14
Fair odd
2.06
Edge
3.9%
Stake
0.83u
That ticket matched the final outcome.