Postmatch editorial
Udinese flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Udinese 1-0 Napoli. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp put the first mark on the match 73', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Udinese led Shots on target 5-0. Udinese also shaded Total shots 18-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Napoli the likeliest result at 43.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Napoli at 52.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.7%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Napoli
43.9%
Market result
Napoli
52.6%
BTTS
Yes
51.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
UdineseUdinese
Napoli
5
0
Total shots
UdineseUdinese
Napoli
18
7
Corners
NapoliUdinese
Napoli
1
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.