Udinese
Udinese won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Fiorentina
Postmatch editorial
Udinese bent the night away from the script
The final score was Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Adam Buksa scored 90+4' for Udinese.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Udinese led Shots on target 7-0. Udinese also shaded Corners 5-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Fiorentina the likeliest result at 41.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fiorentina at 42.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.4%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Fiorentina
41.6%
Market result
Fiorentina
42.3%
BTTS
Yes
52.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
UdineseUdinese
Fiorentina
7
0
Corners
UdineseUdinese
Fiorentina
5
2
Possession
FiorentinaUdinese
Fiorentina
35%
65%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.