Postmatch editorial

Cremonese flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Udinese 0-1 Cremonese. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Jamie Vardy put the first mark on the match 9', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cremonese led Shots on target 2-4. Udinese also shaded Possession 63%-37%.

Before kickoff, our model made Udinese the likeliest result at 49.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Udinese at 41.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.1%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 3.36 against a fair line of 3.16. That translated to an edge of 6.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Udinese

49.2%

Miss

Market result

Udinese

41.0%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

51.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Cremonese

Udinese

Cremonese

2

4

Possession

Udinese

Udinese

Cremonese

63%

37%

Total shots

Udinese

Udinese

Cremonese

10

7

Model edge

2

Cloudbet

Market odd

3.36

Fair odd

3.16

Edge

6.3%

Stake

0.56u

That ticket matched the final outcome.