Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Nicaragua
The final score was Turks and Caicos Islands 0-7 Nicaragua. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Matias Belli Moldskred scored 87' for Nicaragua.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nicaragua led Shots on target 0-8. Nicaragua also shaded Corners 0-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Turks and Caicos Islands the likeliest result at 50.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nicaragua at 98.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (72.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Pncl. The market was offering 1.06 against a fair line of 1.06. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Turks and Caicos Islands
50.7%
Market result
Nicaragua
98.0%
BTTS
Yes
72.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
NicaraguaTurks and Caicos Islands
Nicaragua
0
8
Corners
NicaraguaTurks and Caicos Islands
Nicaragua
0
9
Model edge
2
Pncl
Market odd
1.06
Fair odd
1.06
Edge
0.0%
Stake
5.00u
That ticket matched the final outcome.