Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Haiti
The final score was Turks and Caicos Islands 0-10 Haiti. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Frantzdy Pierrot scored 90+2' for Haiti.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Haiti led Shots on target 1-18. Haiti also shaded Corners 0-15.
Before kickoff, our model made Turks and Caicos Islands the likeliest result at 46.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Haiti at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.0%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Turks and Caicos Islands
46.1%
Market result
Haiti
99.0%
BTTS
Yes
61.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
HaitiTurks and Caicos Islands
Haiti
1
18
Corners
HaitiTurks and Caicos Islands
Haiti
0
15
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.