Postmatch editorial

The script held and Spain delivered it

The final score was Türkiye 0-6 Spain. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Pedri put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Spain led Shots on target 2-12. Spain also shaded Total shots 11-21.

Before kickoff, our model made Spain the likeliest result at 50.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Spain at 66.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.1%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.69 against a fair line of 1.65. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Spain

50.6%

Hit

Market result

Spain

66.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

53.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Spain

Türkiye

Spain

2

12

Total shots

Spain

Türkiye

Spain

11

21

Corners

Türkiye

Türkiye

Spain

8

4

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.69

Fair odd

1.65

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.11u

That ticket matched the final outcome.