Postmatch editorial

Türkiye turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Türkiye 4-1 Georgia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Kenan Yıldız put the first mark on the match 14', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Türkiye led Shots on target 6-3. Georgia also shaded Total shots 10-12.

Before kickoff, our model made Türkiye the likeliest result at 59.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Türkiye at 63.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 1.75 against a fair line of 1.70. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Türkiye

59.8%

Hit

Market result

Türkiye

63.3%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

54.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Türkiye

Türkiye

Georgia

6

3

Total shots

Georgia

Türkiye

Georgia

10

12

Possession

Georgia

Türkiye

Georgia

45%

55%

Model edge

1

Cloudbet

Market odd

1.75

Fair odd

1.70

Edge

2.9%

Stake

1.05u

That ticket matched the final outcome.