Postmatch editorial

Türkiye made the numbers look right

The final score was Türkiye 2-0 Bulgaria. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Atanas Chernev scored 83' for Türkiye.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Türkiye led Shots on target 6-2. Türkiye also shaded Total shots 19-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Türkiye the likeliest result at 73.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Türkiye at 90.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (62.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.13 against a fair line of 1.12. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Türkiye

73.3%

Hit

Market result

Türkiye

90.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

62.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Türkiye

Türkiye

Bulgaria

6

2

Total shots

Türkiye

Türkiye

Bulgaria

19

9

Possession

Türkiye

Türkiye

Bulgaria

67%

33%

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

1.13

Fair odd

1.12

Edge

0.9%

Stake

2.97u

That ticket matched the final outcome.