Postmatch editorial

Tunisia turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Tunisia 3-0 Namibia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Ali Abdi put the first mark on the match 28', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Namibia led Shots on target 3-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Tunisia also shaded Possession 55%-45%.

Before kickoff, our model made Tunisia the likeliest result at 59.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tunisia at 72.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 10.00 against a fair line of 8.91. That translated to an edge of 12.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tunisia

59.3%

Hit

Market result

Tunisia

72.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

61.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Namibia

Tunisia

Namibia

3

5

Possession

Tunisia

Tunisia

Namibia

55%

45%

Corners

Namibia

Tunisia

Namibia

5

6

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

10.00

Fair odd

8.91

Edge

12.2%

Stake

0.29u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.