Postmatch editorial

Tunisia turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Tunisia 2-0 Malawi. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Seifeddine Jaziri put the first mark on the match 86', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Tunisia led Shots on target 10-1. Tunisia also shaded Total shots 22-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Tunisia the likeliest result at 66.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tunisia at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathon. The market was offering 1.46 against a fair line of 1.43. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tunisia

66.1%

Hit

Market result

Tunisia

76.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

61.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Tunisia

Tunisia

Malawi

10

1

Total shots

Tunisia

Tunisia

Malawi

22

6

Corners

Tunisia

Tunisia

Malawi

8

0

Model edge

1

Marathon

Market odd

1.46

Fair odd

1.43

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.46u

That ticket matched the final outcome.