Postmatch editorial

Tunisia made the numbers look right

The final score was Tunisia 3-0 Liberia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Elias Saad scored 90+4' for Tunisia.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Tunisia led Shots on target 8-3. Tunisia also shaded Total shots 12-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Tunisia the likeliest result at 66.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tunisia at 80.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.27 against a fair line of 1.25. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tunisia

66.1%

Hit

Market result

Tunisia

80.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

57.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Tunisia

Tunisia

Liberia

8

3

Total shots

Tunisia

Tunisia

Liberia

12

4

Corners

Tunisia

Tunisia

Liberia

5

1

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.27

Fair odd

1.25

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.86u

That ticket matched the final outcome.