TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Werder Bremen
Postmatch editorial
The script held and TSG Hoffenheim delivered it
The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 1-0 Werder Bremen. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Bazoumana Touré put the first mark on the match 26', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: TSG Hoffenheim led Shots on target 4-2. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Possession 72%-28%.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 48.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 68.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.1%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
48.9%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
68.5%
BTTS
Yes
62.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
4
2
Possession
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
72%
28%
Corners
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
8
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.