TSG Hoffenheim
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
VfL Wolfsburg
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was TSG Hoffenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Grischa Prömel 83', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: TSG Hoffenheim led Total shots 21-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Shots on target 6-2.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 59.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 69.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.9%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
59.1%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
69.4%
BTTS
Yes
62.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
VfL Wolfsburg
21
4
Shots on target
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
VfL Wolfsburg
6
2
Corners
TSG HoffenheimTSG Hoffenheim
VfL Wolfsburg
16
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.